RIM's next product release
Alan Greenspan said he did most of his thinking in the bathtub. He once stated that his "Irrational Exuberance" speech was inspired in the tub. It's now apparent that he couldn’t see the housing and stockmarket bubbles because his glasses were steamed. As with all larger bubbles, they usually break into smaller bubbles. One of them is occuring in the smartphone industry in the ongoing pissing match between RIMM and Apple. With the announcement of Bold, the table is set for another interesting battle between RIM, which dominates enterprise market, and Apple, the teacher's pet in the consumer trade.
Both are eyeing each other's market share, and they go tit for tat with product releases. Research In Motion is planning to take Thunder Road in its battle with Apple for smartphone users. I have always felt that RIMM has "small man's disease" and knows that Apple is the big player and spend more time reverse engineering Apple products than vice versa. How else can one explain abandoning the keyboard, which is the prime signature of their devices and design advantage over the iPhone for the practical enterprise user. Imitation rarely ends in innovation, just look at the Commodore 64. Somethings should never be changed when it comes to core design, especially when they are not broken. We know how the Street deals with overvalued companies their inflated PE's. The Street giveth and the Street taketh away. In RIM's case, then question is not if, it is when.
Alan Greenspan said he did most of his thinking in the bathtub. He once stated that his "Irrational Exuberance" speech was inspired in the tub. It's now apparent that he couldn’t see the housing and stockmarket bubbles because his glasses were steamed. As with all larger bubbles, they usually break into smaller bubbles. One of them is occuring in the smartphone industry in the ongoing pissing match between RIMM and Apple. With the announcement of Bold, the table is set for another interesting battle between RIM, which dominates enterprise market, and Apple, the teacher's pet in the consumer trade.
Both are eyeing each other's market share, and they go tit for tat with product releases. Research In Motion is planning to take Thunder Road in its battle with Apple for smartphone users. I have always felt that RIMM has "small man's disease" and knows that Apple is the big player and spend more time reverse engineering Apple products than vice versa. How else can one explain abandoning the keyboard, which is the prime signature of their devices and design advantage over the iPhone for the practical enterprise user. Imitation rarely ends in innovation, just look at the Commodore 64. Somethings should never be changed when it comes to core design, especially when they are not broken. We know how the Street deals with overvalued companies their inflated PE's. The Street giveth and the Street taketh away. In RIM's case, then question is not if, it is when.
Post Mortem on my RIMM Trade
As many of you know, I have always been transparent in my life as well as my portfolio. This week however, I took a big hit on my May options trade being short RIMM last week. I'm deep underwater as I went high beta on my portfolio and shelved the risk/reward metric in place of pure speculation. I diverted from the risk controls laid out in my trading plan and suffering quite a drawdown. My thesis about RIMM is still intact but partcipating in this market right now is more about timing than fundamentals. The market cares little about your ego or your need to win. I'm looking forward to recharging, recapitalizing, and spending lost time with my family whom I have done a great job of ignoring. I will return to trading next week as I believe this bull wave is coming to an end very soon.
Trade Signal: Sell Video of the Day Crucial Times (Courtesy Jrbaggs)
Disclosure Short RIMMQuote of the Day
“There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do." - Jesse Livermore
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8 comments:
Sorry about your current status but can relate.
From your vantage point -- can you tell if the investment banks (specifically GS) have started to either sell to move it down, buy to move it up or are looking to not impact the price right now?
Will be interesting to see if HPQ has any surprises or whether they confirm the Scandisk view of the consumer side of technology
Cash, I started my own blog as well at PirosCapEte.blogspot.com
Not much up there yet... will add eventually
seek,
Very overbought and couldn't pierce that 145 level. Funds have delayed in distrbuting this but I like the current price action down. Don't want to be the boy who cried wolf, but a selloff is long overdue...
pcap,
Thanks for the crosslink.
jrtubbs contributed the today's video.
I am curious if you view this move down by $1o or so over the past 4 days as the beginning of the "take down" of RIM by GS et. al. or the erosion of value that corresponds with the negative move of the overall market?
Bears in control, RIMM in distribution by GS and other funds, long overdue. Double top confirmed and volume heavy. Of course we will get the normal RIM retraces but RIMM is broken here and P/E deflation is well underway, as well as reality.
Short term target is 125.
The uptick at the end of the day on relatively lower volume was interesting in that it corresponded with a downtick from Apple based on a rumor on the rumor. Interesting that the numbers forecast for the upcoming iphone improvement are being ramped up dramatically by Apple analysts. Since the evoked set among consumer innovators are the two smart phone leaders (RIM and Apple), why has no one noted that it is a zero sum game and necessarily share/growth of blackberry will decline?
125 short term -- as in days? Still think it can be sub 100 before June OE?
Seek,
Possible the short term target for RIMM around 120 + and - 2 margin error. As of June 6 with the announcement of Iphone release you will see more downward for RIMM.
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