Me in '84
Spare Cash
I was going to deliver a diatribe on where I think "RIMM is headed" but realized that it is more important to tell you "who I am" and "where I am at" instead. Lucky for you, right? Well, I just put on the biggest trade of my career this week and realized what an uphill battle all this has been for me, looking back. Whenever I am under a bit of pressure, I tend to look back into the past to gauge if I am making the right decision in the broader scope of things. Growing up, my dad was a nightclub owner and my mom was an accountant for an investment bank downtown. I am not ashamed to say we grew up in Queens, NY in the bricks. Like all my friends, I wanted to be a pro baseball player for the Yanks when I grew up. My folks always told me that the future is always more important than the present or the past. When I was 16, my dad lost his complete savings in two bad investments. He was more of a gambler type than an investor and often chased his bets. I had a joint account with my Mom who was a wizard with numbers and more disciplined. My dad always had too much pride to listen to her advice, most of which she got from her co-workers. He was constantly trying to one up her to prove his intelligence since he never went to college. It was at that time that I learned first hand that pride and independence could be fatal in investing. Dinner at our household was always quiet and tense as my dad had a habit of mumbling and cursing something like, "Damn LTV!!" It's all rigged!..." My mom would never talk about how well our portfolio was doing so as not to offend him. They got divorced shortly after that time, around my freshman year at NYU . And anyone that says money is not important must already be wealthy. It was my mom who sacrificed for my tuition while I did a part-time internship at her company and part-time at a new coffee shop called Starbucks. I've come a long way since those years and so now I find myself here. It seems so strange now that I'm married, have a 3 year old son myself, and work on Wall St. Sometimes life comes at you TOO FAST.
Now I find myself in the most important week of my trading life. One that can define my life. Life is full of defining moments, and this is one of them. As I just put on the largest trade of my life earlier this week (90% of my portfolio) leveraged in RIMM short. It will put me in a new tax bracket if it hits. And so far, I'm half way there. So I couldn't help but think of my dad, and what would have been if he had only listened...
Sentiment Analysis of RIMM
Expect a tiny bounce in the indexes in the AM. I doubt we will get the classic "RIMMsaw" today. RIMM and tech are broken. All pops should be seen as opps to add to shorts. I think this is the beginning of a heavy cycle down that may last a few sessions in RIMM and tech. We should continue to selloff hard into the weekend.
Trade Signal: Sell
Disclosure
Short RIMM
Quote of the Day
"Pride of opinion has been reponsible for the downfall of more men on Wall Street than any other factor." - Charles Dow
"Pride of opinion has been reponsible for the downfall of more men on Wall Street than any other factor." - Charles Dow
Video of the Day
This Friday's U.S. Employment
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7 comments:
Hard to predict on an hour by hour basis. If one believes the premise that Blackberries are no longer the "must have" that they once were and that iphone has more demand (consumer if nothing else) then I continue to agree that a manipulated stock can reverse course to reflect fundamental reality. See no reason to doubt your premise.
This is not the first time you have called a GS take-down, and again it did not happen. If GS wanted to take it down they would downgrade it. They have a 120$ PT, so they could easily say sell here. Your inside info is not adding up.
Kind of hard to know exactly the date that an independent company like GS would execute a plan. As to a sell reco -- only if they are following the stock and only if it serves additional benefits to them.
Regarding the message board challenge to one of the long positions that is more interested in convincing someone they are right than making $: 95 puts from 105 to 115 in May and June. Interesting that the total portfolio decline related to these options today was $2300. For the bulk of the morning it was under $500. Since they were purchased over the past 3 months to replace short positions -- perhaps thsi moght be support that there is less to the pop than meets the eye
totally adorable picutre, thanks for sharing that!
i'm just a lurker.... reading and learning.
O'Sports,
RIMM was already taken to 120 WED, greedy funds want to make the same money twice on the short side. The long term top is in on RIMM here and WILL get taken down again very soon. The fact we retraced today does not negate that since RIMM is moving on NO news. OP/EX is 5/18 and not worried a bit.
Seeking,
RIMM riding with the index, but we all know this bull wave 5 is coming to an end. Sometimes when I am a day off, I get bashed. MM may push us up to DOW13200 on the employment numbers. So short it!
We are not at the begininng of a bull market breakout, but at the end of it. This is typical bear market action, and what looks ill-advised on the daily will be rewarded handsomely on the weekly.
This will all make sense very soon.
AJ,
Thanks, I will be adding and promoting a forum for this blog for "intelligent" discussion of RIMM by the the middle of this month. A forum that is productive and informative...instead of petty and abusive like the Yahoo.
Cash
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